Mesquida is particularly dismissive of the idea that individual leaders can provoke a country to start a war by themselves. Had Adolf Hitler never been born, Mesquida says, the Second World War would have happened anyway. "There would have been somebody else. There are always little Hitlers around, but they don't have much influence until there is a demographic situation that puts them there."
Mesquida prefers to deal with civil conflicts, which he says invariably occur in regions with fast-growing populations. He gives Northern Ireland as an example of a country that suffered through three decades of violence because of too many young men. Now that its population growth is slowing, Mesquida believes the violence will diminish. He is less hopeful for regions where high birth rates persist, such as Africa, the Middle East and parts of Southeast Asia. India and Pakistan are also potential hot spots, he said.
(via Plastic)