So, after Iraq is pacified (or handed over to junior COW members to fix up), who's next? Let's take a look at the candidates:
- Syria. Its name has come up in Washington lately. They're sheltering Saddam and/or his WMDs (you know, the ones they couldn't find in Iraq), helping Palestinian bombers, and refusing to let McDonalds set up in Damascus. And besides they're not very nice.
- Iran. Similar reasons. Plus they're right between Iraq and Afghanistan. Not conquering them wouldn't look very good.
- North Korea. Rumsfeld's heart seems to be set on Syria, but if Kim Jong Il keeps jumping up and shouting "Me! Me! Pick me!", he may have to reprioritise. Business before pleasure and all that.
- Cuba. The presence of a fiercely anti-US Communist state a stone's throw from Florida makes a mockery of the Project for a New American Century's goals of full-spectrum dominance. How can they expect every government in the world to fear and respect the US, knowing that their fortunes, and indeed their very survival, hinge on the report card Washington gives them, when America can't even control its own backyard? Cuba has to go; and with no USSR backing it, it's only time before it gets its turn.
- Venezuela. Crucible of No Logo-style anti-corporate populism or creepy Cuban-like Marxist dictatorship in the offing (depending on whom you believe), either way, it doesn't belong in the New American Century. And they have oil too. To further sweeten the deal, some figures associated with the military-backed strike against the leftist leaders there have actually made claims of President Chavez giving money to al-Qaeda shortly after 9/11.
- Saudi Arabia. The monarchy is apparently tottering on the verge of collapse, with Islamic fundamentalists of the same stripe as made up most of the 9/11 hijackers set to take over. Backlash against the invasion of Iraq could be the push that sends it over, and invites intervention.
- Pakistan. See Saudi Arabia. And they have nukes too.
- France. Well, there are bumper stickers in the U.S. which read "First Iraq, then France", so someone must be for it.
- Canada. Because it's there. It's not heavily defended either; a quick conquest of Canada in the last 2 weeks of October 2004 should be enough to get Bush back with a landslide, even if the economy is fux0red.
So which will it be? Only time will tell.
They'd better not move on Iran; 1) Reforms are coming along slowly but surely - any US intervention would destroy all that hard work 2) A friend of mine, a fellow postgrad student who was visiting from Iran to complete his PhD, returned there about a week before the war started to visit his family. I would really like to see him again...